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Small-scale and “distributed” solar power plants have become a significant part of the world’s largest solar market, but they are now facing the same grid limitations that previously frustrated large-scale solar power plants in China and other parts of the world.
Data from China’s National Energy Administration (NEA) indicates that approximately 96.3 gigawatts of the 216.3 gigawatts of added solar capacity in China in 2023 comprised commercial and industrial (C&I) systems, residential systems, and other small to medium-sized systems. In the first quarter of 2024, 23.8 gigawatts of distributed solar arrays were installed, surpassing the 21.9 gigawatts of capacity from ground-mounted projects.
Distributed Generation Solar Arrays (DG) refer to systems typically installed at a small to medium scale on rooftops, open land, and other locations. These systems can operate independently or as part of the public power grid. Distributed solar arrays not only provide local energy but also help reduce energy losses and enhance efficiency in the use of renewable resources.
Initially, large-scale solar power plants were the frontrunners, followed by C&I systems, and in recent years, residential solar systems have experienced significant growth. In 2014, the National Development and Reform Commission of China (NDRC) introduced regulations and subsidies for distributed solar generation, attracting investors. Small solar power plants continued to thrive even after subsidies were reduced on May 31, 2018, imposed by Beijing, thanks to their inherent advantages over large-scale solar projects.
Distributed arrays can be installed on rooftops in densely populated and land-limited areas of eastern China, easily meeting the electricity needs of residential buildings. This reduces the constraints of excess production compared to large solar sites.
Electricity prices for the C&I sector are significantly higher than the rates for ordinary consumers, reinforcing the importance of utilizing C&I solar systems. For example, in Jiangsu Province, the electricity cost for the C&I sector is about 0.90 yuan (0.10 USD) per kilowatt-hour, while for residential consumers, it ranges between 0.50 to 0.60 yuan. C&I tariffs can exceed 1 yuan per kilowatt-hour in southern provinces like Zhejiang and Fujian.
Since 2014, distributed solar generation arrays (typically considered up to 6 megawatts) have gained popularity due to their ease of grid connection at lower costs compared to large solar power plants, site flexibility, reduced need for reinforcing and converting equipment, and low transmission losses due to proximity to end users.
Government subsidies for residential electricity prices have caused residential solar systems to lag behind C&I systems for some time, but the decline in prices for panels and inverters since 2019 has spurred growth in this sector. Additionally, the level of subsidies allocated for residential solar has accelerated this trend. In 2019, 5.3 gigawatts of residential solar capacity was added, reaching 43.5 gigawatts in 2023, and it may exceed 50 gigawatts in 2024.
Northern provinces in China, such as Shandong, Hebei, and Henan, have accounted for over 70% of China’s residential solar capacity due to existing solar resources, prosperous rural communities, and well-developed power distribution networks. Since 2023, central and eastern provinces like Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Hunan, and Jiangxi have seen rapid growth in the installation of residential solar systems.
In June 2021, the NEA announced the initial phase of a more than 1 trillion yuan “nationwide promotion at the county level,” aimed at encouraging state and local companies to install solar panels on government buildings, educational institutions, health centers, and other public facilities, as well as private homes. Policymakers sele
cted 24% of counties in China (equivalent to 676 counties) to participate in this initiative.
State-owned power companies, primarily focused on developing large-scale solar power plants, faced challenges with the complexities of installing distributed systems and interactions between local management, residents, private companies, and other stakeholders. Many county-level projects were halted before completion, and in some cases, private companies that had initially been sidelined were re-engaged to meet the goals of the adopted policies. By the end of 2023, less than 15% of the targeted production capacity of this policy had been achieved.
The solar energy boom experienced by China since 2016 has outpaced grid capacity, resulting in severe restrictions on the utilization of clean electricity produced by large-scale power plants in northern and northwestern China. The NDRC responded by setting a 5% cap on allowable limits, prompting many investors to focus on distributed systems in central and eastern China. Consequently, distributed arrays are now facing the same capacity limitation issues as well.
As of 2023, over 20 provinces and municipalities in China (including Liaoning, Hubei, Henan, Guangdong, Anhui, and Jiangxi) have adopted policies to limit distributed systems, including suspending project registrations, banning construction, and rejecting grid connection requests. Even provinces like Shandong, Hebei, and Henan are facing grid limitations concerning rural solar power plants, which poses challenges for the future growth of the residential solar sector.
State-owned power companies and Beijing are exploring solutions to address grid limitations, including changes in policies, technology, pricing, and market strategies.
Interest in distributed solar power plants, especially with declining equipment prices since 2023 and the increase in the allowable production limit for solar and wind energy from 5% to 8% by the NDRC and State Grid Corporation of China, continues unabated. This change has also impacted project investment, as new power plants may operate with reduced rates to stay within the cap limit.
Additionally, decreasing battery costs have made energy storage more affordable, reducing grid fluctuations during peak production and providing income sources for residential and commercial battery owners. Time-of-use electricity tariff reforms are also being implemented in some provincial grids in China to encourage consumers to shift their electricity use based on price signals. This strategy aims to enhance the overall efficiency of the power system.
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